The trend in the Vietnamese coffee market over the next few crop years will no longer revolve around the question of how many tons are grown, but rather how much money can be earned per ton. The industry is simultaneously shifting in multiple directions: gradually moving away from its role as a supplier of cheap green beans, investing in deep processing, focusing primarily on domestic consumers, and learning to adapt to European traceability regulations. This article breaks down each shift and provides accompanying forecasts to help you understand the future direction.
1. The Vietnamese Coffee Market is Changing Direction
The most significant turning point for the industry lies in the fundamental shift in growth dynamics. During 2024–2025, export turnover surged to record levels primarily driven by world prices, with average export prices reaching $5,610 per ton despite relatively stable volume. In 2026, the scenario reversed: volume increased significantly while unit prices cooled, leading analysts to believe a repeat of the previous peak is unlikely due to the absence of price support. This forces businesses to seek added value elsewhere instead of relying on the exchange. Three parallel approaches are being pursued: increasing the proportion of processed products, building independent brands instead of selling bulk goods, and exploiting the domestic market, which is less affected by international price fluctuations. This forms the basis for understanding all the shifts discussed in the following sections.
2. Shifting from Raw Export to Deep Processing
The price gap between raw and processed coffee is large enough to be an intrinsic driving force. While green coffee beans are exported at around US$5,610 per ton, roasted and ground coffee reaches approximately US$9,760, and instant coffee up to US$11,180 per ton. The processed coffee sector currently contributes about 19.5% of total export value, and at a recent statistical period, it accounted for about 7.2% of the volume but up to 15.1% of the value – meaning each ton of processed goods is worth twice as much as raw coffee. Many industry experts aim to increase the proportion of deep processing to 40-45% of production. Thailand is an example showing the feasibility of this direction: the market share of Vietnamese goods there increased from 24% to 36%, with 84% being deep-processed products. If the processing proportion increases by a few percentage points each year, export value will increase without needing to plant any additional hectares.
3. A Wave of Investment in New Factories and Production Capacity
The aforementioned shift is being supported by real capital, not just policy. Highlands Coffee has put into operation a roasting plant in Ba Ria – Vung Tau with an investment of approximately 500 billion VND and a capacity of 75,000 tons per year. Trung Nguyen Legend is investing approximately 2,000 billion VND in a cluster of factories in Buon Ma Thuot. Nestlé is injecting an additional 2,000 billion VND into its Tri An factory in Dong Nai. Phuc Sinh has announced plans for a processing plant worth approximately 500 billion VND, while Intimex has set a roadmap to increase its instant coffee production capacity from 4,000 tons to about 20,000 tons per year. The predictable consequence is that competition for high-quality raw materials will intensify, as these factories need a stable supply year-round. For farmers and cooperatives, this is an opportunity to sign long-term supply contracts instead of selling in batches at market prices.
4. Domestic Consumption is Growing Faster Than Exports
If exports increase in line with production, domestic consumption will increase according to income and habits, making the trend much more stable. Domestic consumption is estimated at around 4.9 million bags per crop year and continues to rise. Per capita consumption has increased from 1.7 kg in 2015 to about 2.2 kg, still only about half the world average, so there is still plenty of room for growth. Retail market forecasts show that the size will increase from approximately $519 million in 2025 to around $738 million in 2031, corresponding to a compound annual growth rate of around 6%. Notably, the consumption channel in cafes is growing fastest at about 6.75% per year, although it currently only accounts for 33.4% of the market share. For roasting businesses, this means that the demand for coffee beans for cafes will grow faster than the demand for packaged retail products during the same period.
5. Fine Robusta and the Trend of Upgrading Coffee Quality
A subtle but far-reaching shift is the re-evaluation of Robusta as a potentially high-quality raw material. Instead of being considered a cheap base for instant coffee, more and more growing regions are shifting to selective harvesting, controlled processing, and positioning as Fine Robusta. Market data shows that the specialty product group is growing at approximately 6.95% annually, higher than the average, even though the common group still accounts for about 87% of the market. The significance of this shift lies not in production volume, as the proportion meeting standards is still very small, but in the fact that it creates a new benchmark price for the entire industry and raises the technical standards of cultivation. When farmers see that harvested ripe coffee fetches a significantly better price than unharvested coffee, their harvesting behavior will change faster than any agricultural extension program.
6. Specialized Restaurant Chains and Model Differentiation
The chain market is entering a phase of clear differentiation instead of the previous uniform expansion. Highlands Coffee is projected to reach approximately 928 outlets in 2026, after reaching 855 in 2025; Phuc Long is increasing from 156 to 237 and aiming for around 250; Starbucks is growing from 104 to approximately 149; and Katinat is expanding from around 69 to 120. Conversely, The Coffee House is shrinking from 141 outlets to approximately 78 by the end of 2025. Customer behavior is also changing: industry surveys show that about 62% of customers visit cafes alone, and in many chains, tea sales have surpassed coffee sales. The consequence for businesses is that the large cafe model serving large groups is losing ground to smaller, more convenient takeaway models with menus wide enough to retain non-coffee customers.
7. E-commerce and Multichannel Selling
Sales channels are shifting strongly towards online, leading to changes in product packaging and pricing. In beverage industry reports, online retail is the fastest-growing channel, at around 8% per year, surpassing the growth of supermarkets and traditional stores. E-commerce platforms and short-video platforms have become launchpads for new products rather than just places to clear out old stock. This creates several specific requirements: small 250-500 gram packages for easy transport, packaging that can withstand long-distance impact, clearly printed roasting dates for customers to verify freshness, and strong visual content because customers cannot smell the product. Businesses that treat the online channel as a separate product line with its own specifications and pricing structure will find operations much easier than simply bringing the entire supermarket product to the platform.
8. The Impact of International Regulations on Supply
The European Union’s anti-deforestation regulations, often abbreviated as EUDR, are shaping the rules of the game for the next few years. The implementation date has been postponed to the end of December 2026, giving businesses more time to prepare. The core requirement is to prove that the product is not linked to forest land converted after December 31, 2020, along with data on planting area coordinates, traceability records, and legal documents proving origin. For the Vietnamese coffee industry, this is highly relevant, as Europe accounts for approximately 38-40% of export value. Currently, around 30% of the area has sustainable certification, and 35-40% of production is assessed as meeting the requirements, with a common price bonus of around $50 per ton for compliant shipments. The gap between the compliant and non-compliant portions will determine who retains European orders.
9. Capital Flows, Mergers and Restructuring in the Industry
The prolonged high price levels have changed investors’ perceptions of the coffee industry, which was once considered a sector with thin profit margins. A noticeable trend is the shift of capital from purely procurement to value creation: building instant coffee factories, acquiring existing roasting plants, or investing in retail chains to secure outlets. Recently announced large-scale processing projects have capital investments ranging from hundreds of billions to thousands of billions of dong, with some even planned for factories worth around $150 million. In the retail sector, the differentiation between expanding and shrinking chains indicates that the era of growth at all costs has ended, giving way to efficiency criteria at each point of sale. For small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), the opportunity lies in their role as specialized suppliers for expanding businesses.
10. What Preparations Should Be Made Before the Trends in the Vietnamese Coffee Market?
Based on the above trends, there are four things that should be done soon instead of waiting for the market to stabilize. First, digitize raw material area data now, including lot coordinates, area, and cultivation history, as the end-of-2026 deadline for European regulations is not far off. Second, shift at least a portion of production to value-added forms, even if it’s just roasting and packaging instead of selling raw beans, because the price difference between the two forms is almost double. Third, build a domestic revenue stream to reduce dependence on international market fluctuations, taking advantage of the current per capita consumption of only around 2.2 kg. Fourth, reassess the product portfolio according to sales channels, as online and in-store sales are growing faster than traditional channels. These four things don’t require large capital but need to be started at the right time.