{"id":26640,"date":"2026-09-16T09:45:24","date_gmt":"2026-09-16T02:45:24","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/coffiona.vn\/tong-quan-thi-truong-ca-phe-viet-nam\/"},"modified":"2026-09-30T09:23:05","modified_gmt":"2026-09-30T02:23:05","slug":"tong-quan-thi-truong-ca-phe-viet-nam","status":"publish","type":"page","link":"https:\/\/coffiona.vn\/en\/tong-quan-thi-truong-ca-phe-viet-nam\/","title":{"rendered":"Overview of the Vietnamese Coffee Market"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

The Vietnamese coffee market currently has one of the greatest impacts on global supply, but the real picture is far more complex than the export figures often suggest. This article reconstructs a snapshot of the current situation: acreage and growing regions, variety structure, production volume, export value, price levels, how the value chain operates from farmers to exporters, and the scale of domestic consumption. You will have enough background data to understand where the industry stands before discussing its future.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

1. Vietnam’s Global Market Position in the Coffee Industry<\/h2>\n

Vietnam holds the position of the world’s second-largest coffee producer, after Brazil, and is the absolute leader in the Robusta group. According to USDA forecasts for the 2025\/26 crop year, total production is expected to reach approximately 30.8 million 60kg bags, an increase of about 6% compared to the previous crop year, with Robusta accounting for 96% of the total. Export volume is estimated at 27.3 million bags, compared to 25.2 million bags in the previous crop year, with green coffee beans alone accounting for about 24 million bags. This scale means that any weather fluctuations in the Central Highlands are immediately reflected in Robusta prices on the London exchange. In other words, the Vietnamese coffee market is not just a typical supply link, but a variable that influences the price level of the entire global Robusta segment. End-of-season stocks are estimated at just under 900,000 bags \u2013 a very thin buffer compared to annual trading volume, and that’s why prices are easily volatile whenever there’s bad weather news.<\/p>\n

\"Overview
Overview of the Vietnamese Coffee Market<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

2. Current Area and Main Growing Regions<\/h3>\n

The total coffee growing area in Vietnam is currently around 731,900 hectares, predominantly concentrated in the Central Highlands, encompassing the provinces of Dak Lak, Lam Dong, Gia Lai, Dak Nong, and Kon Tum. This region alone contributes the majority of Robusta production thanks to its loose basalt soil, thick topsoil, and common altitude of 500\u2013800 meters. Arabica coffee is distributed in higher and cooler areas such as Cau Dat in Lam Dong, Son La, Dien Bien, and Huong Hoa in Quang Tri. A fundamental issue in the growing region is the age of the plantations: many areas planted since the 1990s have passed their peak yield period, requiring replanting. The replanting program in the Central Highlands has completed approximately 74,500 hectares out of a target of 91,000 hectares. Replanting takes 3\u20134 years to achieve stable yields, making it a long-term investment that farmers only dare to undertake when prices are sufficiently attractive, as in recent seasons.<\/p>\n

3. Robusta and Arabica Composition in Production<\/h3>\n

Vietnam’s coffee crop structure is heavily skewed towards Robusta, shaping almost the entire industry. With approximately 96% of production being Robusta, the remaining Arabica plays only a supplementary role, concentrated in certain highland regions. In terms of export value, the proportions accurately reflect this: Robusta accounts for about 73.3% of the value, Arabica about 7.1%, and the remaining 19.5% belongs to the processed coffee group, including roasted and instant coffee. This imbalance is both an advantage and a disadvantage. The advantage lies in Robusta’s high yield, low production costs, good disease resistance, and its popularity among global roasters for espresso blends and instant coffee. The disadvantage is that profit margins depend on a single agricultural product, with trading primarily based on floor prices; therefore, when London prices reverse, the entire industry is affected simultaneously.<\/p>\n

4. Updated Export Volume and Value<\/h3>\n

The 2024\/25 crop year concluded with the highest results ever: approximately 1.5 million tons of coffee exported, bringing in $8.4 billion, a 55.5% increase in value despite a 1.8% increase in volume. The paradox of stagnant volume while revenue surged stems from an average export price of $5,610 per ton, an unprecedented level in the industry’s history. Calculated according to the calendar year, coffee export revenue in 2025 is expected to reach approximately $8.9 billion. Entering 2026, the first eight months recorded nearly 1.7 million tons with over $6 billion, meaning volume increased significantly but unit prices cooled down from their peak. The Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association forecasts that the total for 2026 could reach around $9 billion, while estimating a production increase of 8-10% compared to the previous year. These figures indicate that the industry is entering a growth phase based more on volume than on price.<\/p>\n

5. Domestic Price Levels and Fluctuations<\/h2>\n

Price is the most closely monitored variable in the industry and also the fastest-changing. In the 2024\/25 crop year, the price of Robusta beans in the Central Highlands at one point hovered around 118,000 VND per kilogram, equivalent to about 4.45 USD, an increase of 125% compared to the previous crop year. In 2026, the price gradually decreased: in August, it was commonly 96,500\u201397,000 VND per kilogram, falling to around 94,300 VND by mid-September as supplies from the previous crop dwindled. On the London exchange, Robusta contracts for March 2026 delivery traded around 3,917 USD per ton, while Arabica in New York was at 356.05 cents per pound. A noteworthy detail regarding market behavior: during the peak harvest season, farmers in many areas only sold about 20% of their production and held onto their stock, waiting for higher prices, causing exporters to lack raw materials to fulfill contracts. This hoarding mentality has now become a contributing factor to price volatility.<\/p>\n

6. Main Export Markets for Vietnamese Coffee<\/h3>\n

Europe is the most important destination, and the gap with other regions is quite large. The bloc purchased over 710,000 tons worth approximately $4 billion, nearly half of the total trade; the EU-27 alone accounted for 40.1% in volume and 39.4% in value. At the national level, Germany leads with approximately 3.2 million bags in the 2024\/25 season, followed by Italy, Spain, Japan, and the United States, with the US importing around 1.5 million bags, a slight decrease of 3%. This structure explains why any changes in EU policy are closely monitored by the industry. A noteworthy new direction is Thailand, where Vietnamese goods increased their market share from 24% to 36%, particularly processed products, which accounted for 84% of the value of sales to this market. The overall picture remains heavily dependent on Europe, coupled with efforts to expand into Asia to reduce the risk of concentration.<\/p>\n

7. Value Chain from Farmer to Exporter<\/h3>\n

The industry’s most distinctive feature lies in its fragmented production structure. Approximately 90% of exported coffee originates from small and micro-farms, typically with land holdings of only a few acres to a few hectares, significantly smaller than the 5\u201310 hectare farm model common in Brazil. The flow of goods passes through multiple layers: farmers sell to local agents, agents collect the coffee and send it to provincial-level purchasing companies, then to processing plants and exporters, before finally being shipped to international traders. Each intermediate layer takes a portion of the profit margin and dilutes information about the origin of the shipment. Currently, about 30% of domestic cultivated land has sustainable production certification, while 35\u201340% of production is assessed to meet European traceability requirements. This is the crucial bottleneck determining whether the industry can sell at higher prices.<\/p>\n

8. The Landscape of the Vietnamese Domestic Coffee Market<\/h3>\n

Alongside exports, domestic consumption has become a significant volume. An estimated 4.9 million bags were consumed domestically in the most recent crop year, up from 4.8 million bags previously, equivalent to several hundred thousand tons per year. Per capita consumption increased from 1.7 kg in 2015 to approximately 2.2 kg, still lower than the world average, indicating considerable growth potential. In terms of retail, the Vietnamese coffee market is estimated by research firms to be around US$519 million for 2025 and approximately US$550 million for 2026. In terms of product structure, instant coffee accounts for about 37.1%; by channel, takeaway accounts for 66.6%, while in-store consumption accounts for about 33.4%. The infrastructure serving this demand is substantial: the country has over 330,000 restaurants and coffee shops, with Ho Chi Minh City alone accounting for nearly 40% of the total.<\/p>\n

9. Business Groups Participating in the Market<\/h2>\n

Players in the industry can be divided into four groups with fairly distinct roles. The first group consists of foreign-invested enterprises and international traders, who control the majority of large-scale procurement, processing, and export of instant coffee; Nestl\u00e9, for example, has added approximately VND 2 trillion to its factory in Tri An, Dong Nai. The second group comprises domestic export businesses such as Intimex and Phuc Sinh, strong in procurement and investing in additional processing lines. The third group includes retail brands and chain stores: Highlands Coffee is expected to operate around 855 outlets by 2025, Phuc Long around 237 outlets, along with Starbucks, Katinat, and The Coffee House. The fourth group includes thousands of small roasting workshops and processing facilities serving independent cafes with private label products. Trung Nguyen Legend is one of the few domestic names in the largest instant coffee export group.<\/p>\n

10. Read the Current Situation Picture to Make Decisions<\/h3>\n

In summary, the current state of the industry can be encapsulated by four key figures: approximately 731,900 hectares of cultivated land, a production of around 30.8 million bags, a record export value of $8.4 billion per crop year, and an average export price of $5,610 per ton. If you are in the coffee business, three practical implications are quite clear. First, raw material prices have entered a new phase, so any cost calculation based on data prior to 2024 needs to be recalculated. Second, traceable supply will be scarcer than conventional supply, as only 30% of the area has achieved sustainable certification; therefore, long-term contracts with raw material sources should be secured instead of buying on a case-by-case basis. Third, domestic consumption with over 330,000 sales points is a large enough market to avoid complete dependence on exports. Keep a close eye on these three data points and update them each crop year.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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